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    November 30

    申请纪念

    第一份申请材料刚刚submit.期望3个月后能等来一个好结果。
    我一向要在deadline前才把所有的事情赶完。我的几个推荐人也是。希望他们明天能给我把推荐信submit了!
    感谢芳芳今晚最后给我改的ps里的语法问题。
     
    ps贴这里了,路过的朋友给点意见吧。以利接下来的申请。
     

    Personal Statement

    In the fall of 2004, I was on a business interview trip alone. In front of me, machines were rumbling, producing 4,500 pairs of socks every minute. Founded in 1995, Langsha has mysteriously become the world’s second largest socks manufacturer with a yield of 1.2 billion pairs per year. The entrepreneur shared his experience with me, a curious teenage in front of him, “Efficient manufacturing was not the whole story, while effective marketing made that mystery possible.”

    It was the first time that I am really shocked by the power of marketing. What I saw was producing 4,500 pairs in a minute, while what I did not see was marketing the same number to customers during the same single minute. Clearly the latter was much more challenging as the market environment was always changing, filled with fierce competition.

    One year later, on my exchange study in National University of Singapore, I selected a module in marketing, Pricing Models and Strategy. Professor Trichy V. Krishnan, head of marketing, was the lecturer ant it was him who for the first time depicted the vivid pictures of marketing to me. I gradually formed strategic thinking on marketing issues from the cases we discussed every week in the class of 30 students from 8 countries. The products we have touched range from metal cushion pads to chicken lens, projecting machines, AA tickets, etc. Besides, as one of the most confident students for his mathematics in the class, I was really attracted by the models Trichy wrote occasionally on the blackboard. Such mathematical models convinced me that marketing is also a science.

    Upon back to China, I started my own exploration in marketing research. I searched through JSTOR and EBSCO and scanned more than one hundred papers published in the leading journals such as Marketing Science, Journal of Marketing Research and Management Science. I began the reading with a focus on new product diffusion models. In a course project for multivariate analysis, I extended Bass model by Hierarchical and Sequential Clustering methods and introduced the concept of Gradational Bass model which is an additive model with parameters indicating different start time for diffusion in different geographical areas. Empirical analysis on internet’s diffusion in China showed a slight improvement than simple Bass model by my method.

    That project earned me the only full score in the class and also a rarity opportunity to do marketing research on a consulting project for Shanghai Media Group, the second largest media group in China. As the only data analyst in the team, I was responsible for constructing TV ratings prediction models. Though quite challenging, the job was to my taste. Upon now, I have made two significant contributions. The first was the strategic framework of three dimensions analysis for TV ratings, program, audience and broadcast. Based on that framework, we derived strategies on targeting, segmentation and scheduling. The second was much tactical that I introduced the two-stage choice model which has been proved to be superior to simple regression to the data. What’s more, I have independently finished an academic paper “Audience Migration Matrix—A practical approach in TV ratings analysis” which was on measuring audience flow-in and flow-out levels between two successive time slots from aggregated data. Though it was not a part for the project, my method proved to be simple and practical to SMG data and I derived useful managerial implications which are additional value for SMG.

    Another good opportunity that has further prepared me in marketing research is my internship and training in MasterCard International. My mentor, James Chen, Vice president and advisor of MasterCard Asia Pacific, is an expert in Data mining and Database marketing. He shared with me his ten year database marketing experience and gave me a four week exclusive training on data mining techniques and applications. The scope of the training enlarged my vision on modern marketing research, especially in the areas of customer choice, customer loyalty and brand preference and I became strongly interested in the mining of grocery panel data, credit data and internet click stream data.

    Two months ago, I had a talk with Professor V. Padmanabhan, INSEAD Chaired Professor of Marketing, and a former professor in Stanford as well. After I introduced my experience and observations, he encouraged me to pursue Ph.D. in marketing. When we referred to marketing in China, I found surprisingly that marketing has never been well recognized as a science by public in China, even by scholars. Most of companies still misunderstand marketing as making marketing decisions and lots of scholar’s research seems to be out of date. A brief look of the recent publications in the leading marketing journals can tell how little Chinese scholars have contributed in this area. As an emerging market, China, on the edge of taking-off, is attracting eyes of scholars in every area. It is responsibility as well as opportunity for the marketing scholars in understanding how the Chinese markets operate. As a potential one among them, I am definitely willing to devote myself into this field.

    Famous for quantitative research in marketing, Stanford Graduate School of Business is clearly my dream school in pursuing a Ph.D. degree with a focus on quantitative modeling. Pricing, Customer loyalty, Customer Choice and Brand Perception are areas I am extremely interested in. Before application, I have contacted Professor James M Lattin. He found my background strong and interests a good fit to your program and encouraged me to apply. My solid statistical background, persistent self exploration and real business modeling experience lend me confidence to believe that I am an ideal candidate to join your world renowned program. Given the opportunity, I would expect to be well educated in marketing research, and meanwhile, I would bring marketing research work in a Chinese context, just as the leading sock manufacturer I visited.

    Sincerely,

    Chunhua Wu

     
    November 29

    去年此时

    一样的雨,不一样的气温。
    去年此时应该在不到West coast park 到Jurong east中间的地段,水库南岸储油基地。
    嗯,应该是在和荷真枪实弹的士兵聊天,然后人家用枪托帮我把自行车修好了!
    这个经历一生难忘
    November 27

    Fudan 牌经管类产品海外营销战略规划及成功性预测分析

    Fudan 牌经管类产品海外营销战略规划及成功性预测分析

    -----基于Chunhua Wu货号的实证分析

    摘要:本文通过引进Marketing经典的战略分析模型,结合统计学分析方法,对Fudan牌经管类产品海外营销给出了战略性分析框架和成功可能性预测分析模型。研究结果证实本文的研究框架和模型切实可行,模型效果有待验证。该研究报告对于个人学业、生活、爱情、工作、前程等问题上的营销研究是一点有益的探索。

     

    关键词: 海外营销 战略分析 成功性预测

     

    前言

    几天前Fudan牌经管产品,货号Chunhua Wu去面了MCK BA,发现这样的工作和工作环境该产品实在很喜欢。当然没有认真准备,很早被拒,实在有些丢脸。第二个面试官问该产品面对前途最怕的是什么,回答说是怕没有抓住机会,因为该产品不怕自己没能力去handle,能力是可以培养的,也不怕有几多挑战,因为挑战可以激发产品的潜能。最怕的就是起点处没有踏上该产品想走的路。回头想来,该产品的结果印证了其的回答:既然consulting这条路没能踏上这个起点,那么就全力去走也许更合适的学术道路吧。

    既然梦想着走上学术道路,那么也就期许一个良好的起点。本文结合StatisticsMarketing角度对该产品的海外Ph.D.市场营销做一个规划,并且给出成功预测模型。

    前人研究市场strategy问题对本文的研究是一个很好的借鉴。Poter(19xx)提出的五力模型对于宏观分析很有长处,SWOT分析对于认清竞争优劣势是最经典的模型,STP理论对于定位提供了很好的分析框架,4P理论对于如何更好的营销商品是经典工具,3C模型对于认知企业顾客和竞争者的价值感知也很有帮助,其它研究还有马斯洛的需求层次理论也值得参考。总体而言,从strategic角度看,这些理论框架已经成功的应该在了各种商业理论,他们的价值被很好地证实,虽然近年来新的模型不断涌现,但是这些经典的模型的价值仍然值得应用。当然这些模型在个人学业、生活、爱情、工作、前程等问题上的应用还很有限,本文仅仅对此做一个初期的尝试和探索。

    另一方面,当代营销学科的发展越来越离不开数理工具,特别是统计学方法的应用,这些方法的引进和成功应用使得营销在向一门真正的science发展。国内的研究成果在消费者选择、产品认知、品牌忠诚以及新产品推广等方面上已经形成了很多有效的数理模型,ABC(19xx)运用XXX方法对XXX问题进行了XX层次的模型构建,得出了XXX的结论;CBA(20XX)的研究表明XXXXXX问题也有很大影响,在XX情况下,XX的模型比XX以前的模型在精度上有5%的提高。国内学者对于这些领域的研究显得相对比较落后,很少有做得很深入且符合实际的模型。当然国内的研究也正在起步。对于在个人学业、生活、爱情、工作、前程等问题上的模型,虽然还没有到精确的数理的程度,一些初步的经验研究结果也很有借鉴的意义。这其中主要的成果来自于光华GA研究所(bbs.fudan.edu.cn),未名海外研究机构(bbs.pku.edu.cn)等高校附属自发组织非赢利性研究机构。这些研究机构的成果具有信息量大,发布及时等特点,但是这些信息中理工类产品的营销研究为多,经管类的营销结果很少。专门针对经管类产品的最著名研究机构为CD梦想研究所(www.chasedream.com),该机构论文的缺点是更新速度较慢,每年有影响的只有几篇。除了这些研究机构,还有一大批民间学者,他们研究成果很有意义,但是发表途径不一,往往在一些不知名的小杂志上(个人blog),当然有了google学术数据库,这些民间学者的成果也很容易被拿到。

    本文想通过Marketing strategy Quantitive model, Fudan牌经管类产品的海外营销做一个规划并预测营销结果。

     

    假设

    以下是本文的一些基本假设和数据说明。本文主要选取了Fudan 牌经管类产品1个样本(样本这么大啊?)选取产品参数如下:

    产品制造地:中国浙江;

    加工地:复旦大学管理学院;

    加工部门:统计学系;

    锻造地:新加坡国立大学;

    测试地:MasterCard

    产品商标:Fudan

    产品型号:Chunhua Wu

    产品类别:经济管理类;

    产品质量等级:优等(Fudan 教务处认证);

    产品包装:整装,布料包装;

    运输注意:正面朝上,易碎品;

     

     

    (待续)

     

    November 13

    近况

    很忙!
     
    压力最大的过去了,接下来的日子虽然依旧很忙,但是会更加 relax,更加confident,更加值得expecting!
    November 08

    弟兄们加油!!

          今天偶然碰到了俊濮,见面两句聊到前程,然后得知他已经被 Columbia University录取了,PhD in Physics,连申请材料都不用寄。Cong!!!
          我们这一级来自乌镇的在复旦的就俊濮和我两人。我是乡土情节很重的人,俊濮前程无忧,我自然非常高兴。木心先生刚刚从哥伦比亚回来乌镇定居,有家乡的小辈就要去那里了,算是一种更替,轮回,还是新生?
          于是又想到我们这个小镇同一级的几位的前程。海粱兄在北大毫无疑问过得是相当不错,一年后会拒哪些学校,又去哪个呢?还是研究化学吧,抑或现在也已有offer了,尚未确认。还有几位在浙大的,估计继续读研的为多,还有一位在南开的,仿佛准备找工作了。田兄呢,不是严格意义的乌镇人了,反正“在瑞典华人界小有名声”了。弟兄们前程都很不错,我还在痛苦挣扎中,盼望也能有个好收成!
          晚上开会,老板辞掉了主任职务,项目全球排名第8的结果刚刚出来,也算是功成了。而老板的下一站就计划在Columbia University,一天内听到两个Columbia,巧合吗?希望哪天能听到一个INSEAD的。
         一时兴起写的paper终于搞定了,看上去还不错,不过我知道这个的价值不大,如果能把这个算法推到一个真正有用的领域就好了。写了更进一步觉得统计基础的重要性,原来自己连期望是什么都没理解透彻。李老说得太精准了,要是研究生毕业的时候能把他的书看明白就很不容易了,确实是实话啊。。。Anyway希望有地方能看到我的research potential 然后收留我吧。
          弟兄们加油,复旦03级尚未搞定前程的那位乌镇同学加油。
     
    November 01

    My personal statement

    今天看到INSEAD网申,它家给了一个框,说字少就可以直接拷进去,字超过6000就要贴附件,PS竟然还可以写6000字以上啊!想了好久,终于写好了我的ps:
    I think I am really suitable for your esteemed program. For further questions, please feel free to contact me.